Four years ago, Fox News precipitated an internal crisis with a bold election night call that President Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in the crucial state of Arizona. This year illustrated the difference that four years can make.
Fox News wasn't the first network early on Wednesday to declare Trump had sealed his victory over Kamala Harris — upstart NewsNation, conservative rival Newsmax and Scripps Networks led the way — but its ultimate call came nearly four hours before ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and The Associated Press made theirs.
Judging by the cheers that erupted when Fox's call was shown to the Trump faithful gathered at his West Palm Beach victory party, it was a decision that surely was received much better by its viewers than the 2020 call was.
“When you don't like how the cake tastes, you're not going to like the recipe,” said Chris Stirewalt, politics editor at NewsNation. “When you like the cake, you'll love the recipe.”
Trump, Fox can both claim comebacks on election night
Fox's Bret Baier called Trump's victory “the biggest political phoenix from the ashes story that we have ever seen,” and Fox can claim a comeback of its own.
Fox's Arizona call in 2020 infuriated Trump and many of the network's viewers. While it ultimately proved correct, it set in motion furious internal second-guessing and led some Fox personalities to embrace conspiracy theories, which ultimately cost the network a staggering $787 million to settle a defamation lawsuit by Dominion Voting Systems.
NewsNation, which used information from the elections forecasting company Decision Desk HQ, made its call at 1:22 a.m. on Wednesday. Scripps and Newsmax, which also use DDHQ, were within a minute of making the same declaration.
At about that time, Baier said that “we're not there yet,” but noted there was no path to victory for Harris. Fox made its call at 1:47 a.m.
The AP called the election for Trump at 5:34 a.m. ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and the AP all made their calls within a few moments of each other. The AP explained that its declaration that Trump had won came after awarding Wisconsin to the former president by determining that remaining uncounted votes from around the Milwaukee area would not be enough for Harris to overcome Trump's lead there.
For NewsNation's Stirewalt, his network's early call on Wednesday provided a rich irony. He was politics editor at Fox News in 2020 and he and a fellow executive, Bill Sammon, were essentially fired following the outcry over the Arizona call — even though they were proven right.
“It would be easy to overstate the results and I want to be careful not to do that,” he said. “I will say this, it is a victory for the way things used to be done and a personal vindication.”
Letting the numbers do the talking
He said Decision Desk HQ and NewsNation let the numbers do the talking with their calls. He would not criticize rivals for waiting longer, saying it was a natural reaction to be careful in making race calls following what happened in 2020.
The happiness of some viewers at Fox's call was evident in some social media posts. Fox rejects any suggestion that its calls are politically motivated and its decision desk, led by veteran Arnon Mishkin, is widely respected in the industry. Stirewalt called Mishkin “superb” and said “it is to Fox's credit that they kept him when they didn't keep Bill Sammon and me.”
A vigorous conservative media ecosystem has built up in recent years to compete with Fox. But the network remains king of the hill, illustrated again Wednesday by the Nielsen company's preliminary ratings of television election night coverage.
Fox averaged 9.7 million viewers for its coverage in the prime-time hours, well above second-place ABC News, which had 5.7 million. Newsmax, Fox's chief rival for conservative viewers, had 947,000 viewers and NewsNation had 237,000, Nielsen said.
“I am extremely proud of our team’s commitment to delivering the top reporting and analysis to the largest and most politically diverse audience in news,” Fox News Media CEO Suzanne Scott said of Tuesday night’s ratings, according to the network.
Trump's complicated relationship with the network also attests to its continued influence. The Republican candidate was a regular guest on its shows during the campaign, particularly the morning “Fox & Friends,” yet also complains bitterly on social media if he doesn't like something that is said there.
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David Bauder writes about media for the AP. Follow him at http://x.com/dbauder.
David Bauder, The Associated Press