TORONTO — Taylor Swift fans headed to Toronto for a run of six concerts next month are expected to bring with them hundreds of millions of dollars in local economic activity, according to new modelling from a tourism organization.
Destination Toronto CEO Andrew Weir said the non-profit is predicting $152 million in direct spending associated with Swift's Eras Tour during the 10 days it's in town, which the organization anticipates will grow into a $282-million economic impact as the money continues to circulate.
"We've got 282 million reasons to be excited about Taylor Swift coming to the city," he said by phone on Tuesday. "That is, the economic impact that we've now had a chance to calculate at least on a projection estimate basis is very, very significant."
The model the organization used includes predictions about spending on hotels, dining, shopping and other local fare, but does not include the cost of airfare or the concert tickets themselves, as that money is unlikely to stay in the city's economy.
Of the $152 million in direct spending, Destination Toronto said $141 million is estimated to come from out-of-town visitors and $11 million is estimated to come from local fans.
Weir said those calculations are based on what other cities have seen since Swift launched her record-breaking tour, including Denver, which released a study on the concerts' economic impact.
Swift's ability to drive economic activity is remarkable, Weir said.
Industry publication Pollstar reported late last year that Taylor Swift's Eras Tour was the first tour to cross the billion-dollar mark, citing data pulled from box office reports, venue capacity estimates, historical Pollstar venue ticket sales data, and other undefined research, collected from Nov. 17, 2022 to Nov. 15, 2023.
Meanwhile, her blockbuster film adaptation of the tour, “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” has reportedly earned more than US$250 million in sales, making it the highest-grossing concert film of all time.
In Toronto, Swift is set to perform six nights at the Rogers Centre, for a combined audience of roughly 240,000, Destination Toronto said. More than 60,000 people are also expected to attend Toronto’s Version: Taylgate ‘24, a pre-concert event at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Other events have also cropped up, from themed brunches to an event at the Bata Shoe Museum to a singalong hosted by Choir! Choir! Choir!
"That money doesn't stop working once those visitors get on a plane and go home again, because that money is new to our economy," Weir said. "It didn't start the day in our economy, but it ends the day there, and then continues to recirculate."
But one expert said the estimate doesn't take into consideration the potential costs to taxpayers.
Joanne McNeish, who teaches marketing management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said additional garbage collection, added police presence for security and traffic rerouting — not to mention an uptick in crime associated with large gatherings — all cost the city money.
"The economic impact, to me, it sounds like revenue," she said. "And companies always talk about revenue. You want your revenue to be growing. But if you're not making a profit, you'll be out of business pretty quickly."
She said there's undoubtedly a benefit to hosting these sorts of cultural events, but when times are tough financially and public services are being cut — as they are now — it's worth asking questions about spending.
Weir said the public costs associated with Swift's Toronto stint remain to be seen, but he noted a tour stop is unlike other large events such as the Olympics or the World Cup, in which cities are obligated to spend a certain amount of money on infrastructure.
He also said Destination Toronto's modelling predicts $40 million in taxes will be generated by the tour stop.
Spokespeople for City Hall and the Toronto Police Service did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Swift's Toronto run of concerts is set to begin Nov. 14 and will wrap up Nov. 23. Her second stop in Canada will be in Vancouver in December, where she'll close out the tour.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 15, 2024.
Nicole Thompson, The Canadian Press