VANCOUVER — British Columbia's political landscape is far from settled following an election that has yet to produce a clear winner, with recounts set for two key ridings that could determine who forms the next government, and the result won't be known for at least another week.
Elections BC said Sunday in a statement— the day after the election — recounts will take place from Oct. 26 to 28 in the ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre, where the NDP and Conservative candidates are separated by fewer than 100 votes.
The New Democrat candidates are leading by very thin margins in both ridings.
The Conservatives would have to win both to secure the narrowest of majorities, and if not, David Eby's incumbent NDP is poised to form a minority government provided it secures the co-operation of two Greens elected on Saturday.
The NDP is leading or elected in 46 ridings, while John Rustad's Conservatives are leading or elected in 45, but neither have reached the 47 seats required to form a majority government in B.C.'s 93-seat legislature after the initial count that wrapped up Sunday.
The initial count does not reflect about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots that will be included in the final count starting next Saturday, Elections BC said.
The recounts will be part of the final count taking place between Oct. 26 and 28, though judicial recounts may occur if the difference between the top two candidates in a riding is less than 1/500th of the total ballots.
An estimated 57.4 per cent of registered voters cast ballots in the election, up from below 54 per cent in 2020.
With nearly 2,037,900 ballots cast, the statement from Elections BC said it's the most ever votes tallied in a B.C. provincial election.
Regardless of the outcome, the election represented a stunning moment for the B.C. Conservatives, who received less than two per cent of the vote last election, but are now elected or leading in 45 ridings.
The NDP, who started the campaign last month with 55 seats, was elected or leading in 46, while the Green Party captured two seats.
Green Campaign Chair Adam Olsen said it was too early to speculate on the legislative makeup, who will form government or even the likelihood of a minority mandate for the eventual winner.
"The reality is that there is a handful of seats right now that seemingly could go either way," he said Sunday in an interview. "Right now nobody has a majority government. Sometime here at the end of October they are going to count the votes and we'll know for certain then what the outcome is. But it's pretty tight."
The Greens won three seats during the province's 2017 election and helped the NDP form a minority government.
Olsen said he also would not speculate now on the possibility of a minority situation following this election and the shape of the legislature.
"What ever the outcome at the end of this, when those writs are returned to the legislature, the goal here now for all 93 members of that place is to make it function," he said. "(Green Leader) Sonia Furstenau said multiple times throughout the campaign that neither of these other parties deserve a majority government and it looks like so far the people of B.C. agree with her."
Rustad told supporters Saturday the B.C. Conservatives will look to topple the NDP as soon as possible if the election results in a minority government.
"If we are in that situation of the NDP forming a minority government, we will look at every single opportunity from day one to bring them down … and get back to the polls," he said.
Eby said in a muted speech that a "clear majority" of voters supported "progressive values."
But he acknowledged that Rustad "spoke to the frustrations of a lot of British Columbians" when it came to costs of living and public safety.
"We've got to do better," Eby told supporters. "That was our commitment to British Columbians. We've got to do better, and we will do better."
He said he was committed to working with Furstenau, whose party could hold the balance of power.
Neither Eby nor Rustad were available for public events Sunday.
But Eby said in a statement Sunday: "After a close and hard fought campaign, you, British Columbians have asked us to come together and work to make life better. I am determined to listen and get down to work for you."
If the Conservatives flip the lead in both Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat, and hang onto the others where they lead, they will win with a one-seat majority.
If not, and assuming the NDP is unable to pass the Conservatives in any other undecided races, Westminster tradition means the incumbent party gets the first opportunity to try to form a minority government — in this case, the NDP, with the help of the Greens.
Elections BC said more than 99.7 per cent of votes were counted on election night, but ballots cast by voters outside their district were still to be tallied, while "election official availability and weather-related disruptions" delayed some preliminary results.
Furstenau lost her seat but said her party was nevertheless poised to play a "pivotal role" in the legislature.
The Green victories went to Rob Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands and Jeremy Valeriote in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.
Furstenau lost to the NDP's Grace Lore after switching ridings to Victoria-Beacon Hill, but said she was "so excited" for her two colleagues, calling their wins "incredible."
"This is a passing of the torch and I am going to be there to mentor and guide and lead in any way that I can," she told her supporters in Victoria.
Botterell, a retired lawyer, said it was an “exciting day” for him and he was “honoured” for the opportunity to serve his constituents.
"Tonight's a night for celebration," he said. "There will be lots of discussion over the upcoming weeks, but I am totally supportive of Sonia and I'm going do everything I can to support her and the path forward that she chooses to take because that's her decision."
Rustad said his party had "not given up this fight" to form government.
David Black, a professor at Greater Victoria's Royal Roads University, said the Greens retaining official party status by winning two seats could give them “some real bargaining power” in what is shaping up to be a very tight legislature.
“The Greens are going to be the kingmakers here whatever happens, if the race is as close as it is right now between two larger parties,” he said in an interview on election night.
B.C. Conservatives president Aisha Estey called her party's showing "the ultimate underdog story" and relished what she called a "historic campaign."
"Whether it's government tonight or official opposition, we're not going anywhere. There's a Conservative Party in B.C. now finally," she said. "We're back."
Rustad's unlikely rise came after he was thrown out of the Opposition, then known as the BC Liberals, joined the Conservatives, quickly was acclaimed leader, and steered them to a level of popularity that led to the collapse of his old party, now called BC United — all in just two years.
Among the B.C. Conservatives set to enter the legislature is Brent Chapman in Surrey South, who had been heavily criticized during the campaign for an old social media post in which he called Palestinian children "inbred" and "time bombs."
A group of former BC United MLAs running as Independents were all defeated, with Karin Kirkpatrick, Dan Davies, Coralee Oakes, Mike Bernier and Tom Shypitka losing to Conservatives.
For the NDP, Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship Nathan Cullen lost to Conservative Sharon Hartwell.
When election night counting ended, the NDP had received 44.6 per cent of the total vote, the B.C. Conservatives 43.6 per cent and the Greens 8.2 per cent.
It was a rain-soaked election day for many voters, who braved high winds and torrential downpours brought by an atmospheric river weather system.
Two voting sites in Cariboo-Chilcotin in the B.C. Interior and one in Maple Ridge in the Lower Mainland were closed due to power cuts, Elections BC said, while several sites in Kamloops, Langley and Port Moody, as well as on Hornby, Denman and Mayne islands, were temporarily shut but reopened by mid-afternoon on Saturday.
— With files from Brenna Owen, Brieanna Charlebois, Ashley Joannou and Darryl Greer
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 20, 2024.
Dirk Meissner and Chuck Chiang, The Canadian Press
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