Alberta's battered economy will continue to struggle but there is a measure of hope on the near horizon.
Nationally renowned business speaker Todd Hirsch, ATB Financial's chief economist, delivered that message to attendees at Innisfail's first annual business conference last week.
“I do think a year from now Alberta's economy will still remain in a struggle but I think things will be a little more hopeful,” said Hirsch. “I think we will see the bottom of these oil prices sometime in the first half of the year but then some rebound in the second half.”
Hirsch predicted there could be a rebound later this year from the $30 a barrel and lower oil prices to possibly $50 to $55 a barrel once again.
The inaugural business conference was held at the Innisfail Public Library/Learning Centre on Jan. 20. The conference touched on a variety of topics from the job market, to expanding your business and Alberta's economic forecast for 2016.
Along with Hirsch, guest speakers included Pat Kennedy, Moyra Kennedy and Dustin Anderson.
Despite a struggling oil and gas industry in the province, Hirsch said there are key sectors in Alberta that hold potential.
“There are those industries that I think will do well in Alberta. A lot of them prompted by that low Canadian dollar,” said Hirsch, noting agriculture, forestry and tourism. “They're the second, third and fourth largest industries in the province and they had a good year last year, and I think in 2016 they'll do well again.”
Hirsch's talk focused on four different areas, including a forecast for the province in 2016. He spoke on oil prices, the labour market, housing market and economic diversification.
He pointed to the impact agriculture has here in Central Alberta and how farmers could use diversification within the agricultural sector to their benefit.
“Livestock, cattle ranching has been primary and also grain, oilseeds, wheat and canola,” said Hirsch. “I think there's a lot of opportunity for farmers in Central Alberta to start exploring new crops, simply because it's really expensive for Alberta to import a lot of the things that we import.
“I think people are really interested in, not only because of the dollar, but they're very interested in organic, very interested in local and farm to plate. Farm to plate is a huge trend right now,” he added.
Hirsch shared his views on the recent Monetary Policy Report by the Bank of Canada. A report that included a 1.4 per cent growth rate for Canada in 2016, and expected to be a little higher in 2017.
Hirsch noted the weak growth rate and how Canada is lagging other G7 countries.
“That is very weak growth and it's twice now that the Bank of Canada has lowered their growth forecast,” explained Hirsch, noting that small growth is coming from Central Canada, particularly in the areas of manufacturing and exports.
“The resource sector, particularly petroleum, is going to be a drag on the overall economy. Five years ago that was the main engine of Canada's economy and now it's a drag on the economy,” he said.
Other presenters at the conference included Moyra Kennedy, a workforce consultant with the provincial ministry of jobs, skills, training and labour. She provided information on the Summer Temporary Employment Program (STEP) and the Canada-Alberta Job Grant.
“The Canada-Alberta Job Grant is a grant for employers to access to improve skills (for workers) and train employees, whether they are new or existing,” said Kennedy. “This is a golden opportunity to access the Canada-Alberta Job Grant for employers, and the STEP for the summer.”
Carla Gabert, the manager of the Innisfail and District Chamber of Commerce, said the event was a great success that could lead to another next year.
“It was a great turnout today. We had a lot of positive feedback about the day,” Gabert. “We had people here from as far away as Calgary, Didsbury and from other chambers attending today. We were very happy with the support from our local businesses that attended, both chamber members and non-chamber members,” she added. “There's talk of (a business conference) in 2017,” Gabert concluded.
Todd Hirsch
"I do think a year from now Alberta's economy will still remain in a struggle but I think things will be a little more hopeful."
