Many Canadians, including Albertans, can expect a somewhat shorter and warmer winter this year, according to weather specialists with Environment Canada.
Thanks to a weather phenomenon called El Nino, many parts of the country experienced milder temperatures in the fall and into early December.
Here in Central Alberta winter appeared to arrive a little late with warmer than normal temperatures and little or no snow up to the second week of December.
“When we talk about El Nino, we're talking about something that's averaged over a three- or six-month period,” said Kirk Torneby, warning preparedness meteorologist for southern Alberta. “There's a signal that shows that there is an El Nino trend, which means generally for Western Canada, warmer and drier conditions.”
Environment Canada released its winter outlook report last month, outlining a general forecast for the next three months.
Torneby noted that for this type of El Nino event, it means average temperatures are usually one to two degrees above normal.
“That's over the whole period of the winter season,” he said. “It's usually most pronounced during the winter months of December, January, February and into March.”
In addition to warmer temperatures, central Albertans can expect a slightly smaller amount of snowfall this winter as well.
“The seasonal forecast and research has shown with El Nino, that generally for Western Canada and Alberta specifically, it's about neutral or a slightly less amount of snow or rain during that winter period,” said Torneby, noting exact amounts of precipitation are difficult to predict. “Looking out over that seasonal forecast over the next three months, it shows slightly less than normal precipitation.”
Although Alberta was slightly colder than normal last year, said Torneby, due in part to the polar vortex that hit much of Central and Eastern Canada last winter, this winter could shape up to be nice.
The warm fall that many Albertans experienced and the anticipated warmer winter is something that Albertans will no doubt enjoy in the coming weeks, he said.
“It's well deserved that's for sure,” Torneby concluded.
Kirk Torneby
"There's a signal that shows that there is an El Nino trend, which means generally for Western Canada, warmer and drier conditions."
