This year’s crop production looks promising for Innisfail and area farmers.
But for the promising prediction to turn into reality Mother Nature has to be onside.
James Wright, risk analyst with Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) – a government Crown corporation, said while at first glance it looks to be a bountiful year for Innisfail farmers the weather needs to cooperate.
“The present soil moisture should get things off to a good start but there are a lot of things that could happen until the crop gets off in late August or early September,’ said Wright. ‘We need warmer temperatures to allow the land to dry up, and the rain has to hold off until June. That would be perfect.”
Wright said last year was considered an “average” year for Innisfail and area farmers. He said the quality of crops was “down a bit” as the weather was generally cool which caused a delayed harvest. However, he added the crop wasn’t stressed and it developed normally.
“We got lucky,’ said Wright. “What we are recommending this year to farmers is to get insurance. “We don’t know what could happen if it stays cool or if it gets wet.”
The deadline to apply for crop insurance in Alberta is April 30.
The other issue facing producers this year is uncertainty around the high grain prices the industry is seeing. Crop prices are up significantly this year, roughly from 15 to 50 per cent on average, said provincial crop market analyst Charlie Pearson.
“Prices jumped last fall and continued climbing through the winter,” said Pearson. “It’s a demand-led price rally where the world is consuming more than we’re producing. World grain supplies are extremely tight, and that fuels prices.”
He said tight supplies and high prices are driven by a number of factors – a growing world economy, growth in Asia, and a U.S. ethanol policy that now accounts for 40 per cent of American corn production.
“That pushes up prices on feed barley and other grains,” said Pearson, adding world inventories of high quality wheat are low due to flooding in Australia and Canada, and drought in Russia and Ukraine.
Pearson agrees with Wright that while this year is looking optimistic producers are still wondering whether crop prices will remain at the current high levels between now and harvest. “Prices could climb higher, but there are several reasons why they could decline in the months ahead.”
He noted social instability in North Africa and the earthquakes in Japan have already caused price volatility.
“If Mother Nature cooperates and we have bumper crops worldwide, prices will come down,” said Pearson. “On the other hand, lousy weather and poor crops will push prices higher.”
He added the economy and the Canadian dollar are also “wild cards.”
“We live in an insecure world,” said Pearson. “We don’t know what lies ahead.”
