The fractured unite-the-right movement is headed for the train wreck of two and possibly three conservative challengers to the NDP in the next election.
As Alberta politics is unfolding, the attempts in the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties to create a single conservative party to overpower the progressive vote is creating mortal divisions in both parties.
I am reminded of the biblical dictum, "I did not come to bring peace, but a sword."
At the end of January, Wildrose official Opposition Leader Brian Jean took charge, at least until March 18, of the movement by declaring his intention of leading a single opponent to Rachel Notley's party in the next general election.
Jean has the high ground over Jason Kenney. Jean is leader of a party, has a seat in the legislature and is the leader of the official Opposition - the government in waiting.
Jean's recommendation is that if Jason Kenney wins the Progressive Conservative Party leadership March 18, he (Jean) will invite Kenney and the willing PCers to join the Wildrose and remake it into a new unified party.
Then he, Kenney and any other candidates interested, will contest for the leadership in an all-member vote.
The use of the Wildrose Party as the vessel for unification is purely the practical legal consideration that Alberta law does not include the concept of political party mergers. If the Wildrose folds, its war chest would be forfeited to the government treasury - and the spending habits of the NDP.
As part of the lawyering that will go on to create a unified right, the parties will have to come up with a plan to pay down the Progressive Conservative debt if the PC party is dismantled.
No sooner had Jean announced his intention to participate in uniting the right, winning its leadership and becoming the next Alberta premier, than the usual suspects in his caucus drew out their knives and attacked him.
To paraphrase the phrase that Shakespeare wrote when Julius Caesar was assassinated, "Et tu Drew Barnes?" The lack of discipline of the Wildrose dissidents is a throwback to the constant divisions within the Wildrose caucus that lead Danielle Smith to cross the floor to the Progressive Conservatives. No, it wasn't Jim Prentice's charm.
When Jean made his offer to join and lead the unite-the-right crusade, Jason Kenney, who started it all, had a commanding lead in the Progressive Conservative leadership race.
At the halfway point of constituency-by-constituency leadership convention delegate selection,
Kenney had 80 per cent of the delegates nominated so far.
However, he is the leader that the PC executive doesn't want and the executive is still looking for a way to kick him out of the party.
Unless common sense, discipline and loyalty to people of like mind appear, three small-c conservative parties will emerge from this embittered scenario: the new united alternative, the moderate remnant of the Progressive Conservatives and the right wing of the Wildrose.
One more thing will emerge: a second term in government for Rachel Notley.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist, author of four books and editor of several more.
