The Wildrose party is broken.
Right-wing conservatives have had their chance to displace the more moderate Progressive Conservative brand.
That chance fell apart last week after five years of building, a general election in which they won the official Opposition and four byelections in which they lost ground.
The defection to the Progressive Conservatives of 11 and counting Wildrose MLAs, including leader Danielle Smith, has ended the dream of a Wildrose government in Alberta.
When the dust settles, the remaining five Wildrose MLAs will soldier on toward the next general election carrying the tattered Wildrose banner.
They will be burdened by a reputation as in-fighters and right-wing throwbacks to an Alberta that no longer exists, but when it did stood for things now repugnant to the majority of Albertans.
In The Art of War, 2,500 years ago, the Chinese warrior and philosopher Sun Tzu wrote about moments like this:
"Those who win every battle are not really skillful; those who render others' armies helpless without fighting are best of all.
The political destruction of Wildrose is a battle that Premier Jim Prentice has won without a fight.
So who will be in the opposition that Prentice faces?
The status of official opposition may default to the Liberals lead by the five-member Liberal caucus led by ex-Progressive Conservative Raj Sherman.
However, the Liberals have had two swings at winning government after forming a strong and effective official Opposition in 1993 under Laurence Decore, and in 2006 led by Kevin Taft.
However, in her first session as New Democratic Party Leader Rachel Notley was a high-impact player in the legislature.
Last week, Notley said that Prentice “ran a Wildrose government in a bait-and-switch move” that ended in the mass Wildrose MLA floor-crossing.
"The Alberta Conservatives have essentially committed fraud," she said of the Wildrose defanging.
The progressive vote is split between the Liberal, NDP and Green parties.
Progressives dislike each other as much as they dislike conservatives.
Social Credit and Progressive Conservative dynasties survived half a dozen elections with a minority of popular support because of vote splitting.
Rachel Notley's challenge to defeat the Prentice government is to draw progressive voters from other parties.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran business and political journalist, author of three biographies, and a contributor to, researcher or editor of half a dozen books.
