The clear losers on election night in British Columbia were the 100,000 people in Alberta's oilpatch who have been laid off.
Premier Rachel Notley's social licence for oilsands development was not worth the paper it was written on when B.C. voters went to the polls May 9.
British Columbia politics will be chaotic for a while.
The outcome of the general election will be uncertain until at least May 24 when the tally of 100,000 absentee ballots is finished. In a dozen ridings, Elections B.C.'s verification of the results followed by judicial recounts could drag on for a month.
A majority Liberal or NDP government or a minority for either party with the caucus of three elected Green Party MLAs holding the balance of power are all possible.
The margin of victory for either major party would be so razor thin that they will be one heart attack away from a change in the balance of power.
Even in a majority government the narrow margin makes the Green caucus the fallback in a coalition.
The Liberals will have first crack at asking for the confidence of the legislature to govern. To win, Premier Christy Clark has to make a deal with Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver and his mini-caucus who were stridently opposed to major resource projects during the campaign.
The $7.4-billion Kinder Morgan oil pipeline expansion is, if not dead, on life support facing uncertainty and delay past the 2019 Alberta election. So is the $27-billion Petronas Nasional Berhad's liquefied natural gas terminal.
Although they have federal and provincial approvals, there is little doubt that Premier Christy Clark would throw both projects under the bus to retain power.
Thermal coal exports from Alberta through Roberts Banks in the Fraser River delta are also in serious danger. The Greens are also opposed to the $9-billion Site C hydroelectric dam project under construction in northern B.C.
Alberta is a long way from new pipeline capacity for oilsands production.
In Ontario and Quebec opponents to the Energy East project argue that Alberta has other pipeline choices like Kinder Morgan after B.C. politicians come to their senses. If they don't, say Energy East foes, there is always Keystone XL.
Last week in the town of York, Neb., the state's Public Service Commission started the public process on the state approval for Keystone XL with the first of a series of meetings along the right-of-way where challengers to the pipeline can bluster and badmouth the project.
Formal hearings will be held August 7 to 11. A decision is expected by the end of November. Activists started to stage anti-Keystone protests in April. State approval is not certain.
A second level of approvals has yet to be given by landowners on the pipeline right-of-way.
The age of Alberta oil may be coming to a prolonged end. Not with a bang but a whimper.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist, author of four books and editor of several more.
"There is little doubt that Premier Christy Clark would throw both projects under the bus to retain power."
