The next provincial election will be held in mid-April this year, according to Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper.
Cooper made that prediction during a year-end interview with the Albertan.
Cooper is a member of the United Conservative Party, currently the official Opposition in the legislature.
He predicted that premier Rachel Notley, leader of the governing New Democratic Party (NDP), will call an election for mid-April shortly after reconvening the legislature in mid-March.
"My personal speculation, for what it's worth, I believe that the premier will come back to the legislative assembly in mid-March for a throne speech, introduce a throne speech and then call an election," he said.
"I don't anticipate that we'll see the premier passing a budget, predominantly because the economic realities of our province are not ideal and I don't think running on a $10-billion deficit is really what she would like to do."
Cooper predicted that between now and then, the NDP will make several big spending announcements in areas of the province they hope to hold on to. He conceded that that's what governments of all political stripes do just before an election.
Cooper noted the NDP did that late this past year when it announced $500 million in funding to be shared by Calgary and Edmonton, which doesn't officially kick in until 2022-23.
"I know that the people of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills look forward to be able to have an election and I also know that they hope that all across the province that there will be a change in government," Cooper said."I think the constituency has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the last year," Cooper said.
"You know, obviously we're not as impacted by some of the pressures of the oil industry as many other parts of the province, but it still has an impact on our community. So we've seen that continue to be a significant issue over the last 12 months.
"And then obviously with harvest — having three weeks of winter in the middle of harvest — put some pressures on our ag industry.
"But broadly, I think if you compare our region to lots of regions in the province, we've fared well, or better than many other regions. And I think economically we're in a slightly better position," he added.
Cooper said Notley did the right thing late in the year by announcing a plan to curtail oil output in order to boost the price. He said that did work. He said shortly after the announcement, the price of Canadian oil rose by about $8 a barrel.
However, Cooper said, his party had called for that move months ago.
Cooper also gave both praise and criticism for Notley's decision to buy railcars to move Alberta oil to tidewater.
"I have mixed feelings about the rail announcement. It is still yet unclear on the final costs of that. Some estimate upwards of $2.6 billion," he said.
"And the timelines — it's not like you can order a railcar today and have them deliver it tomorrow. The goal is to have 80 locomotives and 7,000 railcars.
"And I also think that there is significant consequences to other commodities being transported in our rail network as a result of that.
"I know I've heard from a lot of grain producers here in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills who already have concerns and challenges getting their product to market.
"They have some very real reservations about whether or not this announcement is going to impact their ability further to get their product to market," he said.
"Rail companies make more money pulling oil than they do pulling grain and so you can't blame them for wanting to get their product to market that has the best value for their company," Cooper added.
"So when you put another 7,000 cars on the track, it does make it more difficult to get our grains and cereals to market."
