The unintended consequence of the 8.7 per cent reduction in oil production established by Premier Rachel Notley – 350,000 barrels per day – is that, come Dec. 31, 2019, lifting the restraint will be unpopular.
The chorus of “me too” from all parties in the legislature means that they are all in this together.
The province’s oil fetches just $10 per barrel compared to about $50 in the United States. The premier hopes the 12-month reduction will narrow that gap by $4 per barrel – 10 per cent. Those numbers do not reflect the way the market works.
Alberta is an oil price taker, not an oil price maker, and Notley can’t control oil prices any more than she could control pipeline decisions by other governments and the courts.
When Notley raises production in a year, there will be protests and environmental activist vilification reported in full by media, just like there was for the Trans Mountain expansion.
Alberta is Canada’s orphan and greenhouse gas emissions from oil and oilsands production are not wanted by a majority of Canadians.
Albertans must adjust to the changes in temperature, water availability and agricultural production. These changes are no longer occurring in increments, they are escalating exponentially.
Global population exceeds seven billion people and will reach nine billion by mid-century, As the population grows, so will carbon emissions from adequate food production, transportation and keeping billions warm in winter.
The reality Albertans have to deal with is that 43 per cent of the province’s climate-changing carbon emissions are from oilsands, conventional oil, and natural gas production.
The recently-released American Fourth National Climate Assessment reports on adaptation to changes in climate.
The NCA’s chapters on impacts and adaptation in the Northern Great Plains addresses what’s happening in Wyoming and Montana and, by inference, in Alberta.
The biggest adjustment will be a water availably crisis as the mountain headwater sources of major rivers are reduced because there is less winter snowpack and glaciers disappear.
Urban water shortages in Alberta’s biggest cities, and for agrarian irrigation and livestock will occur.
The crop profile will change in favour of dryland options such as winter wheat, cotton, sorghum and sunflowers, all suitable for warm, wet winters and hot, dry summers.
Brown will be the new green.
Major fires in browning forests, on the scale of the Fort McMurray wildfire, will be common.
Extreme weather such as hail- and windstorms will threaten agricultural operations.
Alberta’s climate change adaptation should be to restructure the economy with a smaller oil and gas sector, less forestry and tourism, and changes in farm crops and practices.
Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist and author.
