While the road to a full economic recovery remains a lengthy one with challenges on the horizon, Alberta has nevertheless finally successfully emerged through the depths of the recession created directly by the catastrophic crash in the price of oil.
However, one would not likely know this by listening only to the constantly streaming negative barrage of anti-NDP sentiments ceaselessly hurled by the Opposition that is determined to dethrone the government during next year’s election.
Sundre ATB Financial hosted a speaker series at the Sundre Elks Lodge last week that featured a presentation by economist Todd Hirsch on the province’s economic outlook for the coming year.
“It’s still in a lot of ways a tough economy, and we have to recognize that. But we are no longer in a recession. The province is now once again starting to show some economic growth,” Hirsch told a crowd of about 100 people.
“It’s important that we re-calibrate our frame of mind and our language away from ‘we’re living in a recession,'" he said.
The situation is of course not as rosy as say, 10 years ago, when the price of oil was soaring sky high and the gravy train flowed abundantly, “but things are moving in the right direction.”
His prediction for 2018 is an almost three per cent growth in the provincial economy — not as great as has been seen in the past, yet certainly reason for optimism moving forward.
So much for the NDP’s so-called crusade to reduce to rubble the provincial economy. Of course the UCP would likely claim this growth has happened in spite of the provincial government’s policy, not as a result of it. To be clear, Hirsch carefully avoided politicizing the issue and did not mention either the NDP or the UCP in this context.
However, he made clear that in the current global economic climate, Alberta’s oil and gas sector is no longer the powerful engine singlehandedly driving the province’s growth as the industry once did before the 2015-16 crash.
“Now, in the post-recession period, energy prices have stabilized. But the energy sector, I would describe as no longer an engine of growth — I would describe it as a backbone of our provincial economy.”
Of course the backbone nevertheless remains crucial, as anyone who has experienced crippling back pain knows all too well how much harder doing anything else suddenly becomes, he said, adding the importance of the oil and gas industry has to be recognized.
“But we can no longer rely on it — not this year, not in the near future, anyway — to produce a lot of the growth that we’ve become very used to in this province.”
That does not necessarily spell out doom and gloom for Alberta’s future prosperity — quite the contrary.
Hirsch said this province is uniquely situated to adapt and diversify with changing economic trends — including rapid advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence and automation.
“This is not a science fiction future, this is already happening,” he said, adding that anxieties are understandable but in a sense misplaced.
“Because in fact, you look back over the last 300 years of Western economic development and evolution, this has always been the case. This is really nothing new.”
Developments and breakthroughs in technology transform industries, creating new sectors, jobs and opportunities that were previously unheard of, he said.
“The challenge is to make sure our labour market is flexible and adaptable enough to take advantage of those new sectors when they arise. I’m optimistic for Alberta particularly because our labour market has three characteristics that lend themselves very nicely to this whole new world,” he said, referring to a younger population, on average; a highly trained, educated and skilled demographic; and an entrepreneurial can-do spirit and culture.
“And that’s not just a mythology that we tell ourselves in Alberta. Empirical data and statistical evidence measures this, and points to this province as being one of the most entrepreneurial places on earth.”
Past booms were largely the result of unsustainable bubbles created by the oil and gas sector, so future growth might in comparison feel sluggish. But Alberta has emerged from the worst recession experienced in recent economic history, and the province is on the right track, he said.
Boy, was hearing a non-politicized, largely positive perspective on the province’s economic outlook ever refreshing.
This reporter much prefers the opinions of experts, such as Hirsch, who base their positions on data and statistics rather than hyper-partisan political rhetoric spun sensationally to elicit emotional responses and win votes.
So the next time the UCP goes on about how the NDP is tanking the province, just remember that Alberta is leading Canada’s economic growth.
– Ducatel is the editor of the Sundre Round Up, a Great West newspaper
