The 2019 provincial election is a choice for Alberta between two futures: in partisan terms, left or right, and in historic terms, forward or to a conservative restoration.
In this period before voting day, all the parties have an eye on the numbers.
This Alberta election will be decided in 30 constituencies in which candidates from third parties are strong enough to make vote-splitting a deciding factor.
In this 2019 election, vote splitting could result in the winning candidate in a constituency elected with as low as 40 per cent of the vote and the third parties in such ridings garnering 12 to 15 per cent.
The NDP has a lead in one poll group – Albertans between the ages of 18 and 34, the majority of whom chose Rachel Notley’s NDP
If the NDP election campaign turns out Gen-Xers, Millennials, and Gen-Zers, then the NDP would win a few urban seats that the UCP has put in the win column.
Premier Rachel Notley is promising too much during this campaign by promising billions in new spending. These promises kept would result in new taxes for economically-weary voters and possibly a downgrading of Alberta’s credit rating,
The governing NDP and the Opposition UCP are one and two in pre-election polls. On March 22, an aggregate of the polls gave the UCP a commanding 17 per cent lead, 52 to 35. This translates into 69 seats for the UCP, 17 for the NDP and one for the Alberta Party.
The lead has shrunk by five points during the campaign, but 49 per cent UCP support to 35 NDP is still a commanding advantage.
Four per cent of voters, provincewide, favour the Alberta Party, the Liberals or the Freedom Conservatives.
That is strong enough if the vote of the three parties is concentrated in a handful of constituencies, to win three or four seats and be the spoiler that turns 15 more ridings to the UCP or NDP.
Constituencies in which the vote split affects the outcome may be the split between an unexpected winner, the second-finishing major party and 12-25 per cent of the votes won by some combination of other parties.
The United Conservative Party is campaigning for a blue wave, but their leader and their party will win on the coattails of such rock solid, experienced and certified conservative MLAs as Nathan Cooper, Jason Nixon, Leeha Aheer, Angela Pitt and Ric McIver.
This election is the United Conservatives Party’s to lose, like the Progressive Conservative Party in 2015.
Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist, author and editor.
