Alberta’s political landscape changed irreversibly and unarguably in the April 16 election when 1.6 million voters created the first balanced two-party legislature in its history.
There are no third parties, no Independents, just the United Conservatives on the right and the New Democrats on the left.
Premier-elect Jason Kenny’s merger of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties was an indisputable success, returning a majority government of 63 seats and 55 per cent of the popular vote, unofficially at this point.
This gives Alberta’s conservatives another chance at successful governance, the first opportunity since Premier Ralph Klein retired in 2006.
Kenney has an ambitious agenda: repeal of the provincial carbon tax, fiscal reorganization with tax and spending cuts and a confrontational strategy with the federal government over Ottawa’s carbon tax alternative, resource regulation and climate change.
The immediate items on his agenda are to announce cabinet and decide when to call the new legislature. There’s an expectation that he will do much of his governing in the cabinet and caucus, and the legislature and its inconvenient question period will be idle much of the time.
However, he needs a budget sooner rather than later and that may require a legislative session, unless he tries to bypass a full budget and do it piece by piece with cabinet orders.
Two things he doesn’t control: crude oil and natural gas prices and the construction of new pipelines out of the province, so his promise to restart the oil and gas drilling and production industry and create new jobs has limits.
Investors, most of whom are out of province, expect profits and a friendly provincial government falls far short of providing them.
Lower taxes by themselves can’t make up for low prices.
We know Kenney is capable of exercising his iron fist but he is less diplomatic. So he will get no help on the price file from Justin Trudeau’s government.
And the barons who set world prices on a globe swimming in oil will ask, “who is Jason Kenney?”
Rachel Notley has a viable Opposition caucus of 24 MLAs and 32 per cent of the popular vote.
Kenney faces tough resistance, especially to his conservative health-care and education policies.
He will not have a free hand, for instance, to undo gay-straight alliance privacy in the schools or give health- care preference for the wealthy.
The obliteration of the Alberta, Liberal and Freedom Conservative parties at the polls does not necessarily mean their permanent demise.
The 2023 election campaign started April 17, the day after the election.
Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist and author.
