Not since the federal election of 1984 have elections mattered so much to the future of Alberta as they do this year.
There will be a provincial election in the spring and a federal vote in October – half a year to consider whether Alberta goes left or right and whether we belong in Canada.
In 1984, Pierre Elliott Trudeau turned the Liberal Party of Canada over to Toronto corporate darling John Turner. Turner was prime minister for just 69 days before he was ignobly thrown into the political gutter.
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney led the Progressive Conservative Class of ’84, made up of 211 members of Parliament to form the government.
It was the National Energy Program election and the Liberal obliteration was the verdict of Canada’s oil-driven economy on the NEP.
Mulroney’s government overturned the NEP and three decades of wealth creation followed in the Canadian oilpatch until the global price collapse in 2014.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has demonstrated that he is not capable of addressing the complex issues that are handicapping Canadian resource industries. He may not even care.
The federal byelection results Feb. 26 indicate the best Trudeau can hope for is a minority government if he sweeps seats in Fortress Quebec.
Trudeau may not survive the SNC-Lavalin scandal but if he does, he goes into the election campaign seriously damaged.
In Alberta’s spring election, the United Conservative Party has the money and the backroom talent for an overwhelming campaign, and is the odds-on favourite to win convincingly.
The NDP orange experiment tried to do too much too soon – Farm Safety Bill 6 and David Eggen’s tone-deaf education experiments are the leading examples.
Premier Rachel Notley invested too much political capital on new pipelines that haven’t been built. She could have been more cautious – but “should have, could have and would have” lose elections.
UCP Leader Jason Kenney is widely distrusted. The party will be carrying the leader on its coattails. The UCP is likely to win the election, but with fewer seats than they expect.
In the first year of his premiership, Kenney will have to repair his credibility and trustworthiness.
The possibility of being the third choice for voters has slipped through the hands of the Alberta Party.
Leader Steven Mandel forced party founder Greg Clark out of leadership too conspicuously and has mishandled his failure to file a financial statement with Elections Alberta on deadline.
He was arrogant and disrespectful of the judge who decided his appeal, saying, in effect that her opinion didn’t matter much.
David Khan is likely presiding over what looks to be a zero-seat disaster for the Alberta Liberal party. Even if he hangs on to Calgary-Mountainview, the constituency that has been Liberal David Swann’s bastion, his bid to revive the oldest party in Alberta politics has fallen short.
Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist, author and editor.
