Is it better to be righteous and lose or realistic and win? Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will be hoping party members pick the latter choice, as she prepares to run the gauntlet of a leadership review.
Now in other parts of this country a newbie leader who successfully won an election less than 18 months ago, and since then hasn’t made any truly egregious mistakes, wouldn’t expect to be put on trial in such a manner.
But this is the Alberta Tory party, an outfit with a long history of devouring those who lead it, even if proven an overwhelming hit with voters.
Heck, Ralph Klein, who won four electoral majorities for the Tories, was still unceremoniously pushed aside after one of those infamous leadership review votes back in 2006. He’d already said he was quitting, but that wasn’t good enough for some, who figured Ralph was eking out his farewell a wee bit too long.
And so it has proven ever since.
Smith herself got the chance to grab the top job in Alberta politics after Jason Kenney was pressured to step down as premier two years ago. In doing so she performed the greatest resurrection act since Lazarus himself: Albertans having written her off with a vengeance after she infamously crossed over to the old PC party from the Wildrose lot, back when Jim Prentice was premier.
And it was the angry cohort that coalesced under the Take Back Alberta banner that proved the difference in Smith’s leadership campaign. So, she can’t complain today about having to face similar scrutiny, especially now that same group has nabbed many key positions in the party establishment.
Of course, that’s democracy for you. People who turn up get to vote, while those with better things to do than sit through endless, dreary political meetings are sidelined.
So, the key question is: has Smith done enough to quiet those angry voices so they give her a passing grade come the November leadership review in Red Deer?
It’s a balancing act of the highest order for the premier.
Some of the loudest calls involve re-fighting those Covid wars, a subject the vast majority of Albertans have little interest in regurgitating. Then there’s the push for a provincial alternative to the Canada Pension Plan, another controversial idea that doesn’t resonate with many folk who might vote UCP but don’t like risking their retirement funds as part of that bargain.
Meanwhile in the background waits Naheed Nenshi, elected to be the new NDP leader in a landslide as the Dippers hope to grab enough seats in Calgary – where Nenshi was a long-serving mayor – and thereby grab back the reigns of power come the next election.
And there’s one other ominous figure casting a pall over Smith’s future: Justin Trudeau.
No, it’s not opposing the current prime minister that’s the problem. In fact, in a weird way, it’s the opposite. Trudeau’s potential retirement is the real concern.
Smith’s effective fight against constant federal overreach remains her strongest weapon in uniting those various Tory factions. They all despise Trudeau so much that if he departs this collective bond could fray, especially if replaced by a new prime minister in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
So, the question remains, just how angry are those UCP members? Angry enough to risk future defeat at the hands of the NDP just so they’re heard? Would they push Smith into proposing legislation that’ll alienate more mainstream Tory voters, who still remain key to retaining power? And would Smith dare risk ignoring such pressure?
Only in Alberta can winning an election bring such problems.
Chris Nelson is a syndicated columnist.
