Doug Horner's declaration that he will seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives is good news for Alberta as a whole. Whether or not the former deputy premier can escape Premier Ed Stelmach's shadow, however, is a question that could affect his chances of winning.
Horner's announcement brings to two the number of Tory MLAs after Stelmach's job, with former finance minister Ted Morton having resigned shortly after Stelmach announced his plans. That Horner has been a capable minister is beyond dispute ó he has served in cabinet roles as minister of agriculture and most recently as minister of advanced education and technology. He has had the ears of both former premier Ralph Klein and Stelmach. His family is rich in political history, with his grandfather, father and three uncles serving at either the provincial or federal level.
But the Tories' largest challenge might be one Horner will have the biggest problem confronting ó the bleeding of support to the Wildrose Alliance as the party's right looks for a new tent to call home. Morton has already cut ties with Stelmach ó it was a showdown over the upcoming budget that led to both resignations. Morton, still the social and fiscal right-wing hawk that drew so much support and elicited so much fear from party moderates in 2006, has the best chance to give those who share his values a place in the struggling Tory dynasty.
And that's Horner's biggest problem ó he has been a respected member of cabinet under the last two premiers, both of whom stepped down when their popularity started to sag. In Stelmach's case, with his polling numbers plumbing record lows, his name will not be one leadership candidates can invoke in their campaigns. Horner has been a Stelmach booster from the start ó a supporter in 2006 during Stelmach's leadership bid and ever faithful and loyal to the end. Unlike Morton, there is no way he can disavow himself from Stelmach without publicly cutting the apron strings, something Horner is unlikely to do.
While Morton offers a distinct alternative within the party to the disenchanted, Horner represents someone who will try to improve the Tories as they are today, a notion that might not go over well with both party members and the public in general. It is clear no one wants to see the Tories of today and of the last four years in power, regardless of who is in charge. Horner might have the lineage, the portfolio and statesman-like qualities of a good premier, but without offering a clear alternative to party members, he will face an uphill battle. And with Stelmach saying he won't be going anywhere until September, the doors are open for a leadership zoo reminiscent of 2006. The more people that seek that leadership, the more Horner's message will get lost in the subsequent cacophony.
The Tories once were a big-tent party, but the size of that tent has clearly shrunk. If Horner's going to win, he must offer both the faithful and disenchanted a vision distinct from what we have seen over the last few years. A win would be a boon for the region and constituency. A loss would be real proof the Tories are no longer the party they once were.
- St. Albert Gazette, a Great West Newspaper
