Re: Wild horse advocates advise keeping clear of foals west of Sundre
"HAWS estimates that only about 10 per cent of foals born in the Sundre Equine Management Zone survive their first year."
This is contrary to the Alberta Forestry and Parks Feral Horse Framework document, table 4, page 26, which illustrates an aerial survey based increase in feral horse population recruitment of 26.9 per cent from 2021 to 2023 and 51 per cent from 2022 to 2023. These figures are reasonably accurate as they are derived from dedicated helicopter surveys conducted in the Sundre Equine Management Zone.
When I was coordinating aerial enforcement flights with the Alberta Fish and Wildlife Division from 1973 to 2000, we used a Fecundity Factor to estimate free roaming populations of 'wild' ungulates.
If a survey was missed due to weather, or on alternate years relating to budgetary restraints, for example, this reproductive number was utilized to factor in predation, winter die offs and foal recruitment.
The factor ranges from 16 to 24 per cent of a known population, and has been used by wildlife managers in North America since the 1940s. If a known census reveals a thousand animals of both sexes, and all age groups, then by using an average of 20 per cent an estimate of 200 animals joining the population in the following year can be made. In a very mild winter with reduced predation, for example, .24 might be used.
I realize, that at the present time, 'wild' horse advocacy groups remain disinclined to support proven wildlife management techniques when dealing with Alberta's free-roaming (feral) horse populations.
M. Bates, OCAHF, Wildlife officer (R.)
Sundre
