If all goes well, the NDP will be able to balance the budget by 2023. That was the message delivered by Finance Minister Joe Ceci and the Rachel Notley government on March 22.
For those keeping track at home, that would be eight years from the time Albertans booted out the PC party in favour of the NDP. To be re-elected, Ceci is counting on a level of trust from Albertans that his party doesn’t deserve.
Sure, in 2023 it is possible Ceci will be able to balance a budget, but it’s also possible that we’ll enter another boom or bust period. Eight years ago, the price of oil (WTI crude) was above $95 a barrel, and since that time it’s been as high as $125 and lower than $30. The price of oil will always be a gamble and Ceci is counting on a lucky roll of the dice in the next five years.
Oh, how times have changed. When the NDP came to power, coal and oil were dirty words. Alberta was going to diversify the economy and reduce its reliance on dirty oil and coal. Alberta was going to get green and clean. Carbon taxes for everyone. Shut down those coal plants.
But somewhere along the way, a light bulb went off in the collective heads of the NDP – the oil industry is actually important to the prosperity of this province.
So today, Rachel Notley’s NDP government is putting a lot of faith in both the Trans Mountain and Line 3 pipelines being built and getting oil to market. What happens if Trans Mountain doesn’t get built? We need look no further than our neighbours to the west, who wish to stop the Trans Mountain any way they can, but have no problem offering tax breaks to the liquefied natural gas industry.
As the protectionist trend continues to grow, who knows what the market will look like in five years or what tariffs will be imposed?
In the meantime, the NDP continues to spend like there is no tomorrow and maybe for the Notley government, there is no tomorrow. The so-called "path to balance" will put the province $96 billion in debt by the time the budget gets balanced in 2023, assuming we don’t enter another economic downturn in the meantime.
The NDP has shown it has no problem spending, even in the face of credit downgrades. This strategy would never work in the real world, as few businesses could afford eight years without breaking even, but of course this isn’t a business-minded government.
Like a gambler, Ceci just wants to buy some time. Let’s get one more roll of the dice, one more hand or one more spin and hope for a jackpot. It’s a risky strategy and Albertans have seen few "wins" to justify it. Instead, the NDP have put our future prosperity on the line, with interest payments set to hold back the province for years. Like many problem gamblers, Alberta is likely to end up in a deep hole with little to show for it.
- reprinted from the St. Albert Gazette, a Great West newspaper
