If the federal, Ontario and Alberta elections were held today, there would be three Conservative governments, led by Andrew Scheer, Doug Ford and Jason Kenney.
These three men have been elected as leaders of the federal, Ontario and Alberta parties during the past year and each has a new definition of conservatism for the 21st century.
Each is leading opinion polls in their jurisdiction by commanding majorities; these polls indicate that they would form majority governments.
After four decades dominated by politicians who built their political identities at the political centre, the centre no longer houses the voters who decide elections.
Scheer, Ford and Kenney know how to speak to the centre and address fears that they are too extreme to govern.
The next, pivotal, elections in Canada will be between leaders and parties who are clearly right or left.
These elections are Scheer’s, Ford’s and Kenney’s to lose.
The next test of 21st century Canadian conservatism is on June 7 when Ontarians vote for the next provincial government.
Going into the campaign, Ford led the Pollara Maclean’s poll with 40 per cent of the popular vote, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath had 30 per cent and Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne had 23 per cent support.
Horwath is closing the gap on the strength of her secondary support with Liberals who, according to the polls, see her as the best choice to stop Ford from winning the election.
Ford casts himself as, if not a populist, at least anti-elite.
His vulnerably is that he is willing to frankly address abortion access for minors and sex education and other social conservative hot-button issues that conservatives usually sidestep.
In the process of the Ontario election narrowing its focus to a choice between Horwath and Ford it is clearly becoming a choice between conservative and progressive.
The Liberals, who are on life support, are quietly looking for a minority government based on the vote split between the NDP and Conservatives.
Federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has the most precarious position in the polls and also the longest to wait until an election – October, 19, 2019.
Scheer is trading places in levels of support with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is not a factor because he’s not up to the job, and Trudeau is taking his government and party to the left side of the political spectrum, making the NDP irrelevant.
If Ford wins the Ontario election, Scheer will be asked to more sharply define himself as a right-of-centre conservative
Meanwhile in Alberta, Jason Kenney is going out of his way not to be caught in the “fire and brimstone” trap.
On May 14 the NDP attacked the United Conservative Party on social media for “forcing teachers to out gay kids, restricting abortion access, selling your health care to the lowest bidder and advocating a tax cut of $700 million to Alberta’s richest 1%.”
The attack illustrates that in the 2019 spring election, the choice for Albertans will be hard left or hard right.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran journalist and author.
