Regardless of which party forms the government after the April 16 election, the most important change since 2015 is that Alberta is a two-party state again.
This is one case where the numbers tell the story.
In the 1950s, the Liberal and Social Credit parties competed in two-party contests. For Peter Lougheed’s first term, from 1971 to 1975, there were 49 Progressive Conservative MLAs and 25 Social Credit representatives.
In the 1975 election, the PCs returned 69 MLAs and the Social Credit Party just four. Alberta became a one-party state for the next 40 years and five premiers. The throat hold that the PCs had was unbreakable even though the Liberals twice elected healthy caucuses of 32 and 16 members.
The Liberal breakthroughs didn’t take, and Premier Ralph Klein ignored the opposition or humiliated it.
Klein and his henchmen mastered the art of the one-party state. It took nine years after his retirement and three premiers to unmake the political powerhouse that Klein built.
In 2015 Rachel Notley’s NDP won 54 seats, the Wildrose Party, 21 and the PCs, just nine.
When Jason Kenney united the right last year, his ambition was to renew conservatism in the province and unite Alberta in an election tsunami that would reverse the NDP’s Orange Wave in 2015.
Kenney and the United Conservative Party are still the betting favourites in this year’s election. But Kenney’s ruthless treatment of UCP members with whom he disagrees, and former Wildrose Party and official Opposition leader Brian Jean, has squandered the opportunity, if he had one, for a sweep.
Premier Notley has made her share of mistakes, but she’s never blown her credibility or integrity. Her political weakness is that she’s naïve.
A certain brand of rural voter may disparage her, but they won’t decide this election.
If Kenney makes oil the issue, he will learn the morning after the election that the people who determine world oil prices and Alberta’s place in the market don’t know who he is, or care.
If he makes pipelines the issue, he will learn that Alberta premiers can’t do anything that Rachel Notley hasn’t done to get them built.
Notley’s biggest weakness is education. She hasn’t reined in Education Minister David Eggen, who is politically tone deaf, and has done things to schools, students and teachers that are just wrong in the opinion of the vast majority of parents.
Notley can’t match Kenney in two areas: shabby treatment of constituencies, candidates, and former party leaders.
The second area where Kenney has her beaten is in the size of ego and the reach of personal ambition.
No doubt the NDP starts the election in second place.
When the dust settles after the election, we Albertans may have something we’ve never, ever had before – a minority government.
That would be a triumph for the two-party state.
– Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business journalist and author.
