It seems like an odd question to ask in Alberta two weeks into a spring sitting of the legislature in the second decade of the 21st century.
In the 20th century, Alberta was the stage for the triumph of the conservatives from Premier Ernest Manning to Premier Ralph Klein over the progressive populism of the United Farmers and Premier William Aberhart.
However, in the early days of the 2019 general election there are at least three conservative political parties – the United Conservative, Alberta and Alberta Advantage with Jason Kenny, Stephen Mandel and Marilyn Burns as would-be premiers or Opposition leaders, preparing for the campaign.
Their only common denominator is that they are out of power and want back in.
It looks as if a conservative in Alberta is a person who longs for a return to 44 bygone years of the conservative dynasty from Premier Peter Lougheed to Premier Jim Prentice.
The United Conservative Party is handicapped.
Although it is the official Opposition and has 22 MLAs in the legislature including leader Jason Kenney, it doesn’t have policy endorsed by the membership.
It won’t hold its founding convention and decide its policies until the weekend of May 4. For three days, party members will celebrate their accomplishment of uniting the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties.
They will also discuss policy ideas that have been a work in progress by constituency groups this past winter.
However, in the UCP populism is dead.
The party’s policy process is driven by its leader, a controlling Type A personality – competitive, ambitious, and well-organized, whose biggest decisions, to date, have been to shunt aside those who might discredit him and ignore those who could overshadow him.
Derek Fildebrandt is an example of the first and Brian Jean and Doug Schweitzer are examples of the second.
The expectation is that the UCP's policy after May 6 will be in centre-right, acceptable to Kenney, and calculated by him not to offend so that he can build a broad voter base.
He has not defined himself beyond being a political sniper when Rachel Notley is in his scope and a master of media relations when there is a camera nearby.
But what is his vision for the future of Alberta beyond not being governed by the NDP and being deficit and debt free?
His fiscal policies – aside from being impractical in the short term, lack credibility because the debt that Alberta has today is in part the result of deficit financing by conservative premiers Klein, Stelmach, Redford and Prentice.
What Alberta voters need to know is what kind of conservative place will this province be if Jason Kenney has the reins of government for four years?
Politically-speaking the province is deeply divided and the divisions will define the election.
Premier Rachel Notley was the unexpected premier after her party won a majority of seats in the 2015 general election. Will she be a one-term wonder?
Kenney’s burden is to define his party as the alternative and, as he is finding, that is easier said than done.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran business and political journalist and an author.
