The Honeymoon
The last time a Conservative premier was as popular after an election as Jason Kenney is now was when Ed Stelmach won the 2008 general election.
Stelmach commanded 53 per cent of the popular vote and rolled back the number of seats in the legislature held by all the other parties.
He restored the party’s standing to a level that it had enjoyed with Premier Ralph Klein.
The Stelmach victory was similar to Kenney’s result a decade later.
In our political culture, a newly-elected leader has a honeymoon of popularity. Premier Stelmach didn’t have one worthy of the name.
He had offended the Calgary-based Progressive Conservative establishment by defeating its champion, Jim Dinning, in the balloting to replace Ralph Klein as party leader.
And in government, he offended the party’s Calgary inner circle when he had a review of crude oil and natural gas royalties conducted by a blue ribbon panel.
He ran a deficit, the first since Klein paid down most of the debt, and had balanced operating budgets.
Never mind that the Stelmach government’s deficit was the result of Progressive Conservative policies and promises, the party unceremoniously dumped him.
How did that work out?
He was replaced by another party outsider, Alison Redford, and when she created her own political mess, she was replaced by Jim Prentice who lost an election and was replaced by the New Democratic interregnum (the period when normal government is suspended between successive regimes).
With the Wildrose Party acting as the catalyst, the Conservative leadership came to its senses after fifteen years of infighting.
It responded to Kenney’s campaign and formed a United Conservative Party.
Not every conservative is in the big Kenney tent, but he has the opportunity to prove himself and his ideas with the backing of a commanding base of support.
Kenney promised that if he and the United Conservative Party were elected to govern Alberta, they’d get off to a fast start, and he has surrounded himself with a flurry of activity.
How much of it is a substantial change and how much is political theatre?
He set up a blue ribbon panel of experts to advise his government on spending cuts.
Are the advisors or someone else to blame when the cuts come?
One of his actions was to ban, effective May 30, the carbon tax that Rachel Notley imposed. It will be replaced by a federal carbon tax that will cost Albertans more, but blame Justin, not Jason.
Perhaps his honeymoon reception was the party at provincial campgrounds on the May holiday weekend, when he lifted the restriction on alcohol imposed a few years back when other campers, campground owners and police grew tired of rowdy behaviour.
Will his popularity in office depend upon his anger, expressed in his rants against Alberta’s enemies real and perceived, or on improvements to the economy, health care and education?
Kenney’s government will set up a $30-million “war room” to call out lies about the oilsands.
Oilsands environmentalist opponents say the frat-boy antics of the war room won’t affect their campaigning.
Meanwhile, what will he do about the fact that 40 cents of every dollar that the Alberta government spends is spent on health care in a system that is broken?
– Frank Dabbs is a veteran political and business author and journalist.
