The conventional wisdom in conservative circles since May 6, 2015 is that Rachel Notley is a one-term premier and her NDP government is a passing fancy.
The conventional wisdom among progressives is that the Notley government holds Alberta’s political high ground and is establishing the province’s new political dynasty.
The ballot question in the early 2019 election campaign is “has Notley earned a second term?”
The United Conservative Party will set its policy at a party convention May 4 to 6.
Until then, Notley dismisses them. “They insist that we go backward to policies that Albertans rejected in the last election,” she has frequently said since Kenney was elected UPC leader.
When the UPC releases its policies, we’ll fully know the choice between the UCP and the NDP.
Meanwhile, time is on Notley’s side.
The economy is stable again and she has a year – a political lifetime – to set a second-term course before she faces re-election.
Notley isn’t responsible for the crude oil and natural gas price recession and the six-figure job loss in Alberta that followed in her first term. Alberta doesn’t set the price of oil.
However, she has slipped up by getting herself entangled with the go-ahead of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion, something she doesn’t control.
Her other big mistake was to be in too much of a hurry during her first months in office.
Having to amend Bill 6, the Enhanced Protection for Farm and Ranch Workers Act, was the highest profile example of her government acting in haste and repenting at leisure
In a recent speech, she described her government as one that “stands for a hopeful, inclusive, caring, compassionate and prosperous Alberta for all our citizens.”
That’s the new definition of “progressive.”
She has positioned her energy policy to “think like an owner” – the people of Alberta, not the producers, own Alberta’s energy resources.
Her actions to mothball the province’s substantial coal resources demonstrated this.
Notley also says that, “when Albertans elected us, the economy was in free fall. We refused to make a bad situation worse by firing teachers and nurses and making panicked cuts that would have hurt our schools and hospitals and damaged the economic recovery.”
A legislative list for 2018 released by the NDP includes combating crime to help keep families and properties safe, “especially in rural areas.”
Faced with a large deficit, nonetheless the government intends to keep taxes the lowest in Canada.
The minimum wage will be raised to $15.
The government plans to expand access to supervised opioid consumption sites and to crisis services for survivors of sexual violence.
Initiatives to bring clean, reliable drinking water to First Nations communities will be expanded.
Legal protection will be created to “protect the privacy” of kids who join gay-straight alliances in schools.
This points to a culture war the NDP and UCP may fight over a traditional versus secular vision of Alberta.
There is room for both visions to thrive and the political arena is a poor place to decide between the two.
However, the values battle may be fought in the next election campaign.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran journalist and author.
