It seems like there are more important things to write about than Alberta politics when a delusional dictator thinks he can save the “purity” of Russia and prove he’s a tough guy by presiding over the murder of children.
But engaging with local politics is not irrelevant. Practising free speech and free elections is one way to keep brutal tyrants like Vladimir Putin from taking over the world. So here goes.
In Alberta, this has become a watershed year. We will see decisions made about Premier Jason Kenney’s political future, and about the character of both the provincial and federal Conservative parties.
The early 1990s saw a split start to divide the old Progressive Conservatives at both levels. Then the estranged sides got together under new names. Now fractures are showing again.
Leadership votes at both levels may show which sides are strongest. But either vote could result in no clear winner, or in a refusal to accept the decision.
Kenney and his United Conservatives — the name sounds like a sad joke now — go first. The party leadership review vote doesn’t have obviously good outcomes.
If Kenney squeaks out a marginal win, he will still be the damaged leader of an organization in turmoil heading into a general election next year.
If he loses, the UCP will head into a leadership vote with a federal leadership vote already soaking up money and volunteer energy.
Kenney’s most prominent would-be successor for now is Brian Jean. It’s not clear how Jean would be a solid improvement. He could make himself popular. Party supporters could rally to him to hold on to power. On the other hand, he is not a middle-of-the-road figure and has no governing experience.
A compromise candidate could emerge from cabinet. Two or three names are plausible. They can’t so much as whisper interest in the leadership until after the review. A bruising internal struggle could leave them wondering if they even want the job.
Then there is the electoral arithmetic. Calgary will decide next year’s election. A government dominated by that city and unwilling to make serious compromises won’t make Edmonton or other regions happy.
There’s talk of Kenney calling a snap election, of course. That seems unlikely. It would be transparently the desperate act of a desperate leader willing to risk dragging an ungrateful party down with him.
There are escape routes. Voters could decide any option is better than the New Democrats. The New Democrats could blow their chances with dumb decisions.
The UCP could make up ground with better economic prospects in Calgary. They could successfully sell dubious arguments such as: "An 11-cents-a-litre carbon tax offset by tax refunds is a job killer, but an increase of 44 cents a litre in gasoline prices signals a miraculous recovery for the economy and for government finances."
As for what Kenney really wants? He wants to keep his job; his prospects in the private sector are slim. He also has lived all his adult life in politics and wants to influence events. Yet he has shown little of a true leader’s inclination to take responsibility for anything but good news, and his motives are often more negative than positive. His biggest concerns as premier have been to expand privatization in health and education, chip away at federal authority, and reverse everything the NDP did in government even when that means substituting a virtual copy of NDP policies. For some reason, he also seems to want new coal mines.
All the talk of economic recovery and a balanced budget has depended essentially on resurgent oil prices and on government subsidies for other industries, both of which would be the case for a government led by any party. At bottom, Kenney wants to keep other people out of power. First, he has to defend his position from former colleagues who want to do the same with him.
Mark Lisac watches the political scene for Alberta Prime Times. He writes novels too, including the recently published Red Hill Creek.
