In the angry aftermath of federal regulatory and cabinet approval the of Northern Gateway pipeline and oil port, it is apparent that the project is just on first base. Is the near-unanimous opposition in northeast British Columbia an effective veto of the project?
Costly political decisions by federal and provincial governments will be needed to impose Northern Gateway on First Nations, communities and environmentalists in spite of their irreversible objections.
Do the politicians have the political will to follow through on the vision that the pipeline is vital to oil sands development, which in turn will be essential to Canada's economic health in this century?
One bellwether of resistance is that critics of the approval doubt the impartiality of the National Energy Board and federal environment review panel and say that the “independent regulators” are Prime Minister Stephen Harper's pawns.
The safe money is betting that Northern Gateway won't be built.
The only other bet is that it won't be built any time soon.
The Northern Gateway process is reminiscent of the Mackenzie Valley natural gas pipeline process in the 1970s.
That pipeline was intended to bring natural gas from the Mackenzie Delta and Beaufort Sea to Alberta and out from Alberta to other Canadian markets.
It died “not with a bang but a whimper” long after the iconic Berger Commission gave a megaphone to First Nations of the North and their environmentalist allies who, raised unanswerable questions, at least in the minds of the Trudeau federal cabinet, about the impacts of the pipeline.
In the subsequent 40 years, only two new Canadian export pipelines have been approved and only one is interprovincial.
The Express Pipeline takes heavy oil from Hardisty, Alta. into the U.S. via Montana.
The Maritimes & Northeastern Pipeline delivers offshore gas from Nova Scotia, via New Brunswick to the northeast United States.
Stiff opposition stalled the oilsands Keystone pipeline to the U.S., is stalling Northern Gateway and threatens to stall the Energy East conversion of a portion of TransCanada Corporation's natural gas pipeline.
Oilsands producers know they have a target on their backs because of environmental impacts.
Now they fear being landlocked.
- Frank Dabbs is a veteran business and political journalist, author of three biographies, and a contributor to and researcher or editor of half a dozen books.
