Fertilizer prices are remaining relatively high, causing West Central Alberta farmers to take a wait-and-see approach on whether to purchase the input for their fields now, or to wait until spring when prices might moderate, say officials.
But waiting is generally a gamble because as it gets closer to spring planting, demand often means that prices go higher.
“It's going to be a tough decision what producers do (in Alberta) in the fall. Do they put fertilizer down this fall (when prices are relatively high) or do they wait and hope that the price will decrease throughout the season, and then purchase later on,” said Jennifer Stoby, a market analyst, agriculture inputs with Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development, told the Gazette.
Due to high yields of corn in the U.S., corn prices are relatively low this year, Stoby said. Ususally, fertilizer prices move in tandem with corn prices, but this year, fertilizer prices are slightly higher than corn prices, meaning that farmers are hesitating to buy fertilizer for their fields at present, waiting to see if they moderate before making the decision to buy.
Usually because corn takes so much nitrogen that must then be replaced, fertilizer prices also move lower, but this year yields were so good and demand for fertilizer so high that fertilizer prices haven't moderated yet, she said.
“With corn prices (currently) being so low, a lot of producers are looking to cut costs in the U.S. and with that (they would) be looking at putting in soybeans because soybeans don't require nitrogen. The other issue this fall was that corn in the U.S. had all-time yield records, so it's taken a lot of the nitrogen out of the soil and so they have to replace quite a bit more than they usually do,” she said.
Because Alberta markets are tied to the U.S., Alberta farmers are facing a decision. Stoby said a lot of farmers are doing soil testing this fall to gauge what their fertilizer needs will be in the spring, only spending as much as they need to due to lower grain prices this year.
“They're being just a bit more cautious on what they put down in the fall,” she said.
Other factors such as higher natural gas prices in other parts of the world (natural gas is a main component in nitrogen) are driving the price of nitrogen up in other parts of the world, she said.
Conversely, natural gas prices in North America are lower than in other parts of the world and since North America doesn't produce as much natural gas as is needed, it needs to be imported to make more nitrogen. Demand for fertilizer from other markets such as China and Russia also impacts prices. Demand for fertilizer is higher in some international markets.
Stoby advises producers to watch prices closely and to assess their need this spring and only buy as much fertilizer as they need.
“I know that if a whole bunch of farmers are hesitant in buying at all, because of prices, this spring (retailers) will be short and then it will be hard to find it and the price will be driven up,” she said.
In other agriculture news, area producers need to act fast to take advantage of the quickly closing manure application window for their fields, says an Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development spokesperson.
Application needs to be done before the ground is covered in snow or frozen, unless specifically authorized on a case-by-case basis by the Natural Resources Conservation Board (NRCB).
“Basically what they need to do is prepare themselves and think ahead. They need to be aware that there are setbacks and there is a requirement not to spread on frozen or snow-covered ground,” Chris Ullman, a confined feeding operation extension specialist with Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development, told the Gazette.
Ullman said with the possibility for snow at any day, producers need to act fast. Last year many got caught off guard when it snowed in early November.
There is no limitation on the number of times a producer may spread in the spring or autumn as long as they know that their fields can handle the nutrients that will be applied.
“The requirement is to watch your nutrient (levels). So you have to soil test and you have to keep records and you can't exceed the nitrate limits or the salinity limits in the (Agricultural Operations Practices) Act,” Ullman said.
“It's very important that (producers) do keep records and they need to have those soil tests done every three years (at minimum) and they need to keep records and provide them to the NRCB showing where they applied manure, how much manure and having those soil test results available as well.”
There are different setback rules depending on how a producer applies manure – whether injecting directly into the soil or applying on the surface of a field. The rules also differ depending on the slope of the land near a body of water. If the slope is greater than 12 per cent, manure cannot be applied.
More information about the requirements is available by speaking to a confined feeding operation specialist at 310-3276 or by going to www.agriculture.alberta.ca/aopa.
"It's going to be a tough decision what producers do (in Alberta) in the fall."Jennifer Stobymarket analyst, agriculture inputs, AARD
