Although Premier Alison Redford hasn't set a date for the next provincial election, no one should be surprised if Albertans end up heading to the polls sometime early in 2012.
And with a new public opinion poll showing the Tories well ahead of Danielle Smith and her Wildrose party – and with the other parties even further back – the timing might be just right, from a Tory point of view, for the new premier to soon seek her first public mandate.
The Forum Research poll, based on telephone interviews with 1,072 adult Albertans, found that 38 per cent of respondents support the PCs, 23 per cent support the Wildrose, 12 per cent support the New Democrats, and 12 per cent support the Liberals.
While public opinion polls can change from week to week, or even day to day, the fact the PCs appear to have a comfortable lead in the run-up to the next campaign means the next election is Redford's to lose.
Since winning the PC leadership, Redford has been pretty much gaffe free, avoiding the controversies that have, in the past, caused severe damage to other incumbents, such as with both Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien at the federal level.
With a healthy lead coming into 2012, the Redford Tories need above all else to avoid major missteps over the coming months. If they do that, they could very well be on their way to yet another election victory.
For Danielle Smith the next election offers her party its best chance yet to make major inroads, particularly a chance to knock the Liberals out of the official opposition position they have held since 1971.
If Smith's plan is to become Alberta's second party, then she will, of course, want to focus the lion's share of her attention on attacking the Liberals.
If, however, she hopes to topple the PCs, she will need to put most, if not all, of her effort into a t0e-to-toe slugfest with the powerful Redford Tory machine.
Obviously Danielle Smith has a hard choice to make in the coming weeks – should she fight to win the battle against the Liberals or try to win the war against the Tories?
With little realistic chance of toppling the Tories in 2012, Liberal leader Raj Sherman probably needs to make the Wildrose his principal enemy and fight the next campaign accordingly. For the New Democrats, the exact same thing applies.
Although the next provincial election is probably still a couple of months away, is there any doubt that the unofficial campaign is already underway?
